Bankruptcy Prediction Models

At several times in the book and on the web page, you have run into accounting prediction models: Earnings prediction models, S-score models to predict RNOA, C-score models to predict RNOA under conservative accounting, and M-score models to predict fraud. There are also a number of models that use accounting data to predict bankruptcy and debt default:

Altman Z-score:

Altman, E. 1968. Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy.  Journal of Finance 23: 589–609.

Olson O-score:

Ohlson, J.  1980.  Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy.  Journal of Accounting Research 19: 109–131.

A review of these and other models are in

Beaver, W., M. Correia, and M. McNichols. 2010. Financial statement analysis and the prediction of financial distress. Foundations and Trends in Accounting 5: 99-173.

See also a review of bankruptcy prediction models at

https://epublications.marquette.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1025&context=account_fac

Some models employ market price data for prediction with the insight that a firm’s equity can be viewed as a call option on its debt. See, for example, the KMV-Merton model at

 

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